Disney was dealt another box office blow over the weekend with their latest animated effort,Wish, which tumbled a staggering 62.4 percent in its second weekend to $7.4 million. Even by post-Thanksgiving standards, which typically see deflated box office numbers, that massive drop adds to Disney’s mounting problems on the theatrical front.
Wishwas already in trouble when it debuted much lower than its estimated $50 million+, tracking to $31.6 million over five days and just $19.6 million during the proper three-day weekend. This is not the start that you want for a $200 million film, but Disney also appears to be their worst enemy regarding their theatrical footprint. The emergence of their streaming service,Disney+,has made some of their big screen efforts seem less special. With them sending certain titles to the platform, audiences have begun questioning whether it’s worth shelling out their hard-earned dollars to see the latest Disney animated effort in theaters.
The COVID-19 Pandemic Made Disney Pivot More Towards Disney+
2020 would see the start of theCOVID-19 pandemic, which, in terms of moviegoing, would see movie theaters shuttered all over the world, thus making the box office virtually non-existent. Disney’sOnward, a Pixar release featuring the talents of Chris Pratt and Tom Holland, had just begun its run in theaters when it opened to $39.1 million.
However, once the effects of COVID hit the industry just a week later, the film tumbled 72.9 percent before it was sent to the Disney+ streaming service in an effort to make up for some of the film’s potential losses and allow families to watch the movie at home since seeing it theatrically was no longer an option.
This wasn’t a bad move, given the fact that every major studio soon pivoted to streaming and PVOD to release movies that weren’t given numerous delays to wait out the pandemic. The problem is that the company doubled down onDisney+ premieres, even as the scars of the pandemic began to heal.
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Speaking solely about their animated films, projects such asSoul,Raya and the Last Dragon,Luca, andTurning Redwere all sent to Disney+. An argument could’ve been made for some of these titles going that route, but with thecontroversialTurning Redin 2022, the move didn’t make much sense. The film should’ve been Pixar’s return to the big screen, especially since the film would become well-received by critics, registering a 95 percent fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes before scoring a Best Animated Feature nomination at the 95th Academy Awards.
Turning Redhad everything in its corner for potential box office success, but Disney felt the pressure of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, which hit in January 2022. The decision was ultimately made to pullTurning Redfrom theaters and to make it a Disney+ exclusive.
The decision was head-scratching for several reasons, most notably since it was a Pixar release, and it’s one of the most important brands in Disney’s arsenal. The quality of a Pixar film tends to be on a higher level, and making the move to send one of their high-profile releases to the platform felt more like an insult and a showing of a lack of faith.
The move also showed a lack of belief in original ideas since the other Pixar release of 2022, theToy Storyoff-shootLightyear, was given a full theatrical release four months later. The idea was likely that a film likeLightyear, tied to a familiar IP, would be successful, but that wasn’t to be.Lightyear’s box office underperformedand didn’t score as well with critics compared toTurning Red. What appeared to happen withTurning Redalmost felt like a last-straw scenario. If Disney could send a creatively viable film like that to their streaming service, why is it necessary to see their titles on the big screen when they have made it much easier to watch at home?
What appears to be happening is that what Disney used as a crutch to get them through the pandemic has now tarnished the brand. If you can easily stream a movie in the comfort of your own home a month or two after its theatrical release, it does result in the potential for moviegoers making less of an effort to catch the film on the big screen.
The Disney+ Strategy Has Led to Diminishing Box Office Returns for Disney
Lightyearwas probably the first example of the Disney+ problem, but it became more evident after the release ofStrange Worldduring the Thanksgiving holiday of 2022. Despite decent reviews (72 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes),Strange Worldbombed at the box officefor Disney, grossing $73.6 million worldwide on a reported budget ranging from $135 million to $180 million.
No matter how you spin it, it represented a massive loss for the studio, making it one of the biggest box office bombs of all time. While it was encouraging that Disney banked on an original idea, the release didn’t feel special because those interested felt it could’ve been any of the films that went straight to their streaming service. It’s very telling that onceStrange Worldhit Disney+, it ranked as the top streaming movie for 19 days.
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Pixar’sElementalwas also dealt a blow in Disney’s latest box office woes, although positive word of mouth softened it. The movie opened below expectations at $29.5 million, lower than the $35-40 million it was tracking towards ahead of its opening weekend. It was the second-lowest three-day opening for a Pixar film, behind the $29.1 million launch ofToy Storyin 1995, which was their very first movie. The film may have opened below expectations because audiences became accustomed to waiting for recent Pixar releases to hit Disney+ instead of seeing them in theaters.
In the long run,Elementaleventually turned into a sleeper hit because a groundswell of word of mouth made it evident this was a film worth seeing on the big screen. The movie would eventually gross $154.4 million domestically and $495.9 million worldwide on a $200 million budget.Elemental’ssuccess was gradual, but had the film felt like a must-see in theaters from the start, it’s possible that the movie would’ve seen even greater financial success.
There are other pieces in play as to why Disney is seeing another financial misfire.Wishhas been a box office disaster, with reviews that weren’t particularly strong (48 percent rotten on Rotten Tomatoes), and there was something about the film that made it feel more like a relic from the past rather than the next major step in animation.
That being said, Disney once could turn even lukewarm reviews into box office success.Wishcould’ve been another example, but the elephant on its back is Disney+. The film feels as if it could’ve gone straight to streaming, and even if the quality had been greater than that, Disney began setting a precedent that their theatrical releases don’t have the urgency or magic they used to. This isn’t the first time that Disney has been in a lull, so they will no doubt pull themselves out, but it all starts with making their movies feel like events again that need to be seen on the big screen.Wishis in theaters everywhere now.
If you love Disney and are interested in their latest film,Wish, check out MovieWeb’s interview with the film’s star, Ariana DeBose, below.
